Wells Fargo: Las perspectivas para México

so ¿por qué nuestros analistas no pueden ser objetivos?

Noten que el pronóstico de crecimiento de Wells Fargo para 2007 es ya de sólo 3%, medio punto porcentual por debajo del pronóstico promedio de nuestros analistas.

Mexico: Economic Overview

Mexican economic performance has been unraveling during the last months of last year. All indicators are pointing to a strong slowdown in economic activity during the last two months of 2006 even though not much has been reported in the press either inside or outside the country. Furthermore, things are not looking good from outside either. In fact, Mexican migrants have started to shrug off sending remittances from their earnings every month. The latest data on migrant remittances point to an almost flat growth in remittances during the last months of last year. (....)

Meanwhile, housing lending has also reversed its strong year-over-year performance, from rates of almost 100% down to rates of 50%, but this is still an unsustainable rate of growth. Thus, the Mexican construction sector, which was one of the most important contributors to 2006’s economic growth, will take back stage to other sectors during 2007. Even consumer lending, which was growing at rates of 50% per year, started to slow down during the last quarter of the year.

Thus, the Calderón administration must be concerned with the prospects of lower economic growth during this year, especially if the Mexican central bank is pushed to start increasing interest rates during the next several months. It is clear that the Mexican inflation picture is deteriorating, with core inflation accelerating at a very fast pace.