El Premio Nobel James Heckman ha escrito en compañía de varios de sus alumnos mexicanos de la U. de Chicago (saludos a Micho, Cajeme y Oliver!) un interesante y controversial artículo titulado: "Policies to Promote Growth and Economic Efficiency in Mexico".
Aquí sus conclusiones (énfasis mío):
"First, we show that there is an increasing proportion of children living in disadvantaged environments due to changing family structures. Such arrangements lead to less investment in children. This phenomenon will have major implications for child development and the productivity of the work force of the next generation. Progresa/Oportunidades operates too late in the life cycles of disadvantaged children to be effective. Mexican policy should better target the early preschool years of disadvantaged children.Second, we have addressed the problem of informality in the Mexican economy. The major cause of informality is regulation and taxation. Regulation causes less productive firms to participate in the informal sector to avoid costs. This has dynamic effects on investment in physical and human capital, and reduces productivity growth in Mexico. There is little evidence that the introduction of social programs targeted towards informal workers has played a major role in promoting informality."
Este último punto, por cierto, lo había discutido de manera indirecta en un paper conjunto con Juan Luis Ordaz que pueden ver aquí.