Blanchard: Un Poco de Realismo

Hoy fue publicado un excelente artículo escrito por Olivier Blanchard, Profesor del MIT y quien es actualmente el Director del Área de Investigación del Fondo Monetario Internacional.

El artículo es excepcional porque hace un balance muy objetivo de la situación económica actual y de las perspectivas de crecimiento futuras, así como de los ajustes que será necesario enfrentar hacia adelante. Aquí un extracto del trabajo:

In normal recessions, however disruptive they are to businesses and jobs, things turn around predictably. The current global recession is far from normal (...) The turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.

(...) All this means we may not go back to the old growth path, that potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis.

The forecasts now predict that growth will be positive in most countries, including advanced countries, for the next few quarters. But there are two caveats to this news:

• Growth will not be quite strong enough to reduce unemployment, which is not expected to crest until some time next year.

• These positive growth forecasts are largely predicated on a combination of a fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding by firms, rather than on strong private consumption and fixed investment spending. Sooner or later, the fiscal stimulus will have to be phased out. And inventory adjustment will also naturally come to an end.

(...) This tour of the world suggests three conclusions:

• First, the crisis is likely to have led to a decrease in potential output. One should not expect very high growth rates in the recovery.

• Second, sustained recovery in the United States and elsewhere eventually requires rebalancing from public to private spending.

• Third, sustained recovery is likely to require an increase in U.S. net exports and a corresponding decrease in the rest of the world, coming mainly from Asia.