Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Blanchard: Un Poco de Realismo

Hoy fue publicado un excelente artículo escrito por Olivier Blanchard, Profesor del MIT y quien es actualmente el Director del Área de Investigación del Fondo Monetario Internacional.

El artículo es excepcional porque hace un balance muy objetivo de la situación económica actual y de las perspectivas de crecimiento futuras, así como de los ajustes que será necesario enfrentar hacia adelante. Aquí un extracto del trabajo:

In normal recessions, however disruptive they are to businesses and jobs, things turn around predictably. The current global recession is far from normal (...) The turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.

(...) All this means we may not go back to the old growth path, that potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis.

The forecasts now predict that growth will be positive in most countries, including advanced countries, for the next few quarters. But there are two caveats to this news:

• Growth will not be quite strong enough to reduce unemployment, which is not expected to crest until some time next year.

• These positive growth forecasts are largely predicated on a combination of a fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding by firms, rather than on strong private consumption and fixed investment spending. Sooner or later, the fiscal stimulus will have to be phased out. And inventory adjustment will also naturally come to an end.

(...) This tour of the world suggests three conclusions:

• First, the crisis is likely to have led to a decrease in potential output. One should not expect very high growth rates in the recovery.

• Second, sustained recovery in the United States and elsewhere eventually requires rebalancing from public to private spending.

• Third, sustained recovery is likely to require an increase in U.S. net exports and a corresponding decrease in the rest of the world, coming mainly from Asia.


Anonymous said...

Distinguido Dr. Esquivel:

Usted siempre tan cerca de Mankiw, ahora raro se me hace que cite a Blanchard. Una cuestión curiosa: Habrá que ver cuando bajan las ventas de manuales de Mankiw y cuanto suben las de Blanchard a partir de esta crisis.

El cisne negro said...

Bueno, que mejor que la siguiente canción de Dylan:

The Times They Are A-Changin'

Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'.
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'.
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'.
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

Copyright ©1963; renewed 1991 Special Rider Music